S&P 500 Rallies As U.S. Dollar Pulls Back Towards Weekly Lows

Key Insights
The strong pullback in the U.S. dollar provided significant support to stocks.
Treasury yields have pulled back after touching new highs, which served as an additional positive catalyst for S&P 500.
A move above 3730 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance level at 3760.
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Pfizer Rallies After Announcing A Huge Price Hike For Its COVID-19 Vaccines
S&P 500 is currently trying to settle above 3730 as traders’ appetite for risk is growing. The U.S. dollar has recently gained strong downside momentum as the BoJ intervened to stop the rally in USD/JPY. Weaker U.S. dollar is bullish for stocks as it increases profits of multinational companies and makes U.S. equities cheaper for foreign investors.

The leading oil services company Schlumberger is up by 9% after beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Schlumberger’s peers Baker Hughes and Halliburton have also enjoyed strong support today.

Vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna gained strong upside momentum after Pfizer announced that it will raise the price of its coronavirus vaccine to $110 – $130 per shot.

Biggest losers today include Verizon and Twitter. Verizon is down by 5% despite beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Subscriber numbers missed estimates, and traders pushed the stock to multi-year lows.

Twitter stock moved towards the $50 level as the U.S. may conduct a security review of Musk’s purchase of the company.

From a big picture point of view, today’s rebound is broad, and most market segments are moving higher. Treasury yields have started to move lower after testing new highs, providing additional support to S&P 500. It looks that some traders are ready to bet that Fed will be less hawkish than previously expected.

S&P 500 Tests Resistance At 3730

S&P 500 has recently managed to get above the 20 EMA and is trying to settle above the resistance at 3730. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If S&P 500 manages to settle above 3730, it will head towards the next resistance level at 3760. A successful test of this level will push S&P 500 towards the next resistance at October highs at 3805. The 50 EMA is located in the nearby, so S&P 500 will likely face strong resistance above the 3800 level.

On the support side, the previous resistance at 3700 will likely serve as the first support level for S&P 500. In case S&P 500 declines below this level, it will move towards the next support level at 3675. A move below 3675 will push S&P 500 towards the support at 3640.

SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

Effectively Growing Your Digital Marketing

In the past, if you owned a small, or even medium-size, business, you may have been able to get away with very little marketing. Well those days are gone. Not only do you need to market nowadays (no matter what size business you own) but you need to be involved in many different types of marketing. They are all a part of your marketing strategy.The changing approach to marketing for your businessIn days gone by, the marketing approach that business owners used was outbound marketing. With outbound marketing, the advertiser placed ads in various places (print ads, television, radio, etc). Although that marketing approach worked for a long time, eventually, the target audience got smart and learned how to block the ads in various ways. Of course, that left the business owners with a really big problem.A newer (and probably more effective approach in this digital technology age) is inbound marketing. Inbound marketing is the opposite of outbound marketing.Because they are coming to you willingly, they are prequalified and; therefore, they are customers who suit your business needs more closely. There are several different ways that you are able to reach your customers and to positively influence them.You can interact with your target audience over the Internet, through the various social media channels that you have chosen for your particular business, and various other means of online communication. The truth is that business people nowadays are too busy and too impatient to spend a lot of time on anyone or anything. If you can interact with them quickly and effectively, they will listen to you and they will keep coming back for more. It is a win-win situation.Take advantage of what is in front of youMost likely, by now, you recognize the importance of interacting with your target audience (and anyone connected to your target audience) online. Online interactions give you to opportunity to reach a very large number of people in the shortest amount of time possible. However, it is very important for you to understand clearly that even though you are involved with inbound marketing for your business and if you are seeing positive results from your marketing efforts, that in no way means that you should abandon your outbound marketing efforts.Traditional marketing is still very important and you should still retain that as part of your overall marketing strategy. In fact, the two types of marketing should work together and, if you work them correctly, you will see that they have a synergy that is very powerful and that achieves the results that you are hoping to achieve. Some of the marketing strategies that you will definitely not want to abandon are word-of-mouth, referral, and just plain open communication. They will all take you very far.The good thing about inbound marketing is that it will not eat into your budget very much at all. In many cases, you can achieve results from your inbound marketing efforts without spending any money at all. Of course, the price that you will have to pay is not in dollars. It is in time and effort, which are definitely valuable commodities for you as well. There are many different ways in which you can make a positive difference through your online marketing strategy.
Become an influencer via online marketing: You need to realize (if you haven’t realized already) that social media is an extremely powerful and influential tool. It behooves you to make the most of it and to leverage all that you can of social media for your business. You may (or you may not) be surprised at how much you can achieve through your social media efforts.
Increase your list of customers through your social media channels: The most popular social media channels can help you to increase your list of customers. If your branding is strong, which it definitely should be at this point, those social media channels will work in your favor. The fact is that people really want to interact through social media. It is quick, effective, and fun and many people are really interested in being a part of the whole social media scene.
Pay close attention to analytics: It is essential that you track your business’s progress extremely carefully. One of the many reasons why analytics are so important is that they allow you to understand what you are doing right and what isn’t working. They also allow you to identify trends and you can continue to hone what you are doing and you will see that the results will be positive.
Influence people so that they become loyal to your brand: Content really is king when it comes to your business’s success. People are not only interested in what you have to say but they are also extremely excited to tell you (and anyone else who is listening) what they think. They want to feel as though you value their opinions. And, why not? It is a human quality to want to be accepted and appreciated.
Position yourself so that you are top of mind for other people: Again, this goes back to the importance of content. If you share top-quality content with people on interesting, relevant topics, there is no doubt that people will be very interested in what you have to say and in how you say it. In fact, they will probably want to keep coming back for more and they will be excited about sharing your words with people whom they know and trust. That is exactly what you want to happen.
ConclusionWhen it comes to your marketing strategy for your business, it is important to remember that both traditional marketing and inbound marketing are important and your marketing strategy will be the most successful if you can use both marketing approaches together. Together, they will create an incredible buzz that people will not soon forget. If your story is sincere and told with heart, people will listen to what you have to say with pleasure. Together, there will be no stopping you!